Aging in place, age specific migration and natural decrease

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Population Studies
• Geographic Analysis

Background:

• The United States is experiencing significant regional demographic shifts.
• Understanding the drivers of population change, such as natural decrease, is crucial for future planning.
• Natural decrease, defined as a rise in deaths compared to births, is an emerging demographic trend.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the influence of 'aging in place' and age-specific migration on the geographic spread of natural decrease in the US.
• To project the timing of natural decrease across different US regions.
• To develop a county-level typology based on migration patterns to refine natural decrease projections.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of regional demographic change data.
• Projection of natural decrease based on recent birth and death rates, excluding migration.
• Application of age-specific migration data from Oregon and Washington to create a county typology.
• Modification of natural decrease timing predictions using the developed typology.

Main Results:

• The study identifies 'aging in place' and age-specific migration as key factors influencing the geographic pattern of natural decrease.
• Migration patterns can significantly alter the projected timing of natural decrease in specific counties.
• A typology of counties based on migration characteristics can refine demographic projections.

Conclusions:

• Both intrinsic population dynamics (births and deaths) and migration patterns are critical for understanding the advent and spread of natural decrease.
• Future demographic changes, particularly in regional populations, will be shaped by the interplay of aging, migration, and natural population change.
• The developed county typology offers a tool for more accurate localized demographic forecasting.