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Modelling regional migration in China: estimation and decomposition
Environment & Planning A
|September 27, 2002
Summary
This study analyzes spatial structure and origin-destination factors influencing interregional migration in China using various migration models. Findings help understand migration drivers for better policy-making.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Human Geography
- Spatial Science
Background:
- Interregional migration is a complex phenomenon influenced by spatial factors and origin-destination characteristics.
- Understanding these drivers is crucial for effective regional planning and policy development.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify and quantify the effects of spatial structure and origin-destination attributes on interregional migration.
- To develop a decomposition approach for analyzing migration patterns based on established models.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a decomposition approach based on migration models.
- Estimated and compared a gravity migration model, an extended gravity model, a Poisson gravity model, and a multilevel Poisson model.
- Employed interprovincial migration data for China from 1985-1990.
Main Results:
- The study successfully decomposed the various effects influencing migration in China.
- Quantitative insights were gained into the relative importance of spatial structure versus origin-destination attributes.
- Different migration models provided varying perspectives on the decomposition of migration drivers.
Conclusions:
- Spatial structure and origin-destination attributes significantly impact interregional migration patterns.
- The developed decomposition approach offers a robust method for analyzing migration determinants.
- Findings provide valuable data for informing migration policies and regional development strategies in China.