Modelling the determinants of trans-Tasman migration after World War II

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Economics
• Sociology

Background:

• Trans-Tasman migration between Australia and New Zealand is significant.
• Understanding migration drivers is crucial for policy and planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify the economic and demographic determinants of migration flows between Australia and New Zealand.
• To model emigration probabilities in both directions.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a probabilistic emigration model.
• Proxied the cost of migration using real air travel costs.
• Analyzed labor market conditions and earnings differentials.

Main Results:

• Migration flows are influenced by factors similar to internal migration.
• Key drivers include migration costs, labor market conditions, and earnings differentials.
• Return migration and age composition modify these effects.

Conclusions:

• Economic and demographic factors significantly shape trans-Tasman migration.
• The findings offer insights into the determinants of largely uncontrolled migration flows.