Migration selectivity and the effects of public programs.

Area of Science:

• Socioeconomics
• Urban Economics
• Demography

Background:

• Location-specific policies can alter local demographics through migration.
• Evaluating policy effectiveness locally requires accounting for selective migration biases.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model the spatial distribution of mobile agents under location-specific incentives.
• To assess how selective migration affects local policy evaluations.
• To test migration selectivity using longitudinal data from Colombia.

Main Methods:

• Formulation of a spatial distribution model for heterogeneous agents.
• Utilizing longitudinal data from Colombia to analyze migration patterns.
• Behavioral analysis assuming endowment heterogeneity dominance.

Main Results:

• Confirmed existence of selective migration in response to location-specific subsidies.
• Subsidies attracted higher-income households, but with lower fertility and human capital.
• Observed migration patterns align with endowment heterogeneity over taste heterogeneity.

Conclusions:

• Selective migration significantly impacts local policy evaluations.
• Human capital subsidies can lead to unintended demographic shifts.
• Agent-based modeling provides insights into complex migration dynamics.