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Related Experiment Videos

Immigration and immigrant generations in population projections.

B Edmonston, J S Passel

    International Journal of Forecasting
    |November 1, 1992
    PubMed
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    This study introduces a new generational population model for improved demographic projections. The model forecasts significant US population growth and shifts in racial/ethnic composition over the next century.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Population Studies
    • Sociology

    Background:

    • Standard cohort-component models do not account for generational population dynamics.
    • Understanding intergenerational population shifts is crucial for future planning.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To propose a novel generational population projection model.
    • To analyze future US population growth and racial/ethnic composition changes.

    Main Methods:

    • Developed a model incorporating four generations: first (immigrants), second (children), third (grandchildren), and fourth-and-higher.
    • Required generation-specific fertility, mortality, and migration equations.
    • Included a method for empirical intergenerational birth assignment.

    Main Results:

    Keywords:
    AmericasCultural BackgroundDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEstimation TechnicsEthnic GroupsFamily And HouseholdFamily CharacteristicsFertilityForeignersGenerationsInternational MigrationMigrantsMigrationModels, TheoreticalMortalityNationalityNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation DynamicsPopulation ProjectionResearch MethodologyUnited States

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    • Projected US population to reach over 400 million by 2070 with 950,000 annual net immigration.
    • Anticipated a marked shift in the US racial/ethnic composition over the next century.
    • Demonstrated the model's utility in projecting growth rates and population composition by generation.

    Conclusions:

    • The generational model offers a more nuanced approach to population projections.
    • Immigration levels significantly influence future US population size and diversity.
    • Future demographic trends indicate substantial changes in the US population's racial and ethnic makeup.