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Population concentration in less developed countries: new evidence
Papers in Regional Science : the Journal of the Regional Science Association International
|July 1, 1995
Summary
Population concentration in core economic regions, predicted to decline after $5000 USD per capita income, continues to rise in less developed countries. Post-war data show a weak correlation between income and migration, challenging earlier economic theories.
Area of Science:
- Urban economics
- Economic geography
- Demographics
Background:
- Economic theory posits population concentration peaks at a specific income level, leading to redistribution.
- Developed countries (DCs) historically followed this pattern, but less developed countries (LDCs) show different trends.
- Previous research suggested a slowdown, not reversal, of coreward migration in LDCs post-USD 5000 income.
Purpose of the Study:
- To update population redistribution trends in LDCs using post-war data.
- To examine the relationship between per capita income and core region population share.
- To reassess the validity of the USD 5000 rule in contemporary economic development.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of post-war national population redistribution data for LDCs.
- Statistical examination of net migration rates into core regions.
- Correlation analysis between per capita income and population concentration.
Main Results:
- Post-war data for LDCs largely support the need for caution regarding the USD 5000 rule.
- A weak negative correlation exists between coreward net migration and per capita income.
- Population share in core regions can continue increasing well beyond the USD 5000 per capita income threshold.
Conclusions:
- The predicted decline in population concentration after reaching USD 5000 per capita income is not universally observed in LDCs.
- Economic development alone does not guarantee a reversal of coreward population shifts.
- Further research is needed to understand the nuances of population redistribution in developing economies.
Keywords:
Demographic FactorsDeveloping CountriesEconomic FactorsGeographic FactorsMigrationPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation DensityPopulation DynamicsPopulation GrowthResearch ReportRural-urban MigrationSocioeconomic FactorsSpatial DistributionUrban PopulationUrban Spatial DistributionUrbanizationMore Related Videos
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