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[Evaluation of Dutch population forecasts].

A H De Jong

    Maandstatistiek Van De Bevolking (Hague, Netherlands : 1982)
    |November 1, 1995
    PubMed
    Summary

    This study evaluates the accuracy of Dutch population forecasts, highlighting how model improvements and changing demographic trends like fertility and mortality impact predictions. Adjustments to long-term assumptions can be affected by short-term fluctuations.

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    [National Household Forecasts 1996: strong growth of one-person households].

    Maandstatistiek van de bevolking (Hague, Netherlands : 1982)·1997

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Statistical Modeling

    Context:

    • Population forecasting accuracy in the Netherlands.
    • Historical forecast errors in the 1960s and 1970s.
    • Evolution of demographic forecasting models.

    Purpose:

    • To assess the accuracy of past population forecasts in the Netherlands.
    • To identify causes of forecast errors.
    • To examine the impact of model updates and changing demographic trends.

    Summary:

    • Population forecast errors can stem from model deficiencies or unexpected demographic developments.
    • A cohort-component model was developed to address inaccuracies in earlier forecasts.
    • Forecast accuracy is influenced by incorporating changes in fertility, mortality, and migration, though short-term fluctuations pose challenges.
    Keywords:
    Demographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesError SourcesEstimation TechnicsEuropeMeasurementModels, TheoreticalNetherlandsPopulationPopulation DynamicsPopulation ForecastReliabilityResearch MethodologyWestern Europe

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    Impact:

    • Informs the development of more reliable demographic projection methods.
    • Highlights the importance of dynamic model adjustments for accurate long-term population predictions.
    • Provides insights into the complexities of forecasting population dynamics.