The problem of predicting global food production

This paper examines the problem of the development of models capable of predicting the capacity of the global food production system. In particular, it identifies the various factors influencing the food production, and estimates their relative influence and predictability. The paper discusses also the problems connected with coupling of models representing the "driving" forces, the Earth system consisting of the atmosphere, the ocean and land surface, and food production. The overall conclusions drawn are: i) The time is not yet ripe for designing a comprehensive coupled model for predicting the global food production that takes into account all the factors having a significant influence; ii) the main difficulties are the modelling of the driving forces, e.g. socioeconomic and political factors, and iii) despite these problems, it is judged that results obtained with existing models are capable of providing concrete information for implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures.