Related Experiment Videos
Determinants of human population growth
1Population Project, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. lutz@iiasa.ac.at
Summary
Human population surged in the 20th century, driven by factors like demographic transition. Future growth is expected to slow this century, leading to an ageing global population.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Population Studies
- Sociology
Background:
- The 20th century witnessed a dramatic increase in global human population, from 1.6 to 6.1 billion.
- Continued population growth is anticipated, necessitating an understanding of its drivers and future trends.
Purpose of the Study:
- To summarize the factors behind historical population expansion.
- To project future population growth patterns.
- To analyze the relationship between population density, growth, and fertility rates.
Main Methods:
- Review of demographic transition theory.
- Analysis of preconditions for sustained fertility decline.
- Global-level systematic analysis of population density's impact on birth rates, growth, and fertility.
Main Results:
- Fertility declines globally suggest population growth may cease this century, though significant growth persists in developing regions.
- Declining birth rates coupled with increasing life expectancy will lead to a substantially older global population.
- Population density is identified as a significant factor influencing human birth rates, alongside social and economic determinants.
Conclusions:
- Global population growth is projected to end within this century.
- An ageing population structure is an inevitable consequence of current demographic trends.
- Population density plays a crucial role in shaping human fertility and population dynamics.