Prognostic factors in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma treated by percutaneous ethanol injection

Percutaneous ethanol injection (PEI) has been widely performed and is now accepted as a viable alternative to hepatic resection in patients with small hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC). However, only a few extensive investigations have been conducted regarding the prognostic factors for HCC patients treated with PEI.

We investigated the prognostic factors in 100 patients with small HCC who had undergone PEI. Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis with Cox's proportional hazards model were used to determine the factors potentially related to survival. For clinical application, a prognostic index was calculated based on the regression coefficients of the independent variables identified from the multivariate analysis.

Median survival time and 1, 3 and 5 year survival rates were 71 months and 100, 84 and 62%, respectively. Among the 15 potential prognostic variables investigated, only three variables, namely a serum albumin level < or = 3.5 g/dL, the presence of tumor stain and a serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase level > 66 IU/L, were identified as factors independently associated with a shorter survival. A prognostic index based on the regression coefficients of these three factors was proposed to classify patients into three groups, those with a good (5 year survival rate 91%), intermediate (64%) and poor prognosis (22%).

The results of the present study may be useful in predicting the survival of HCC patients treated with PEI and in the design and analysis of future clinical trials of PEI for HCC.