Paget's disease in New Zealand: evidence for declining prevalence

The prevalence rate of Paget's disease in New Zealand is believed to be among the highest in the world, but recent data suggest that it may have decreased in recent decades. We estimated the current prevalence of Paget's disease in subjects of European origin (>55 years of age) in two New Zealand cities (Dunedin and Auckland) based on review of nearly 2000 pelvic radiographs. Prevalence rate increased with age (p = 0.022) and was higher in men (p = 0.014), but there was no significant difference between the two cities. The Dunedin data were compared with a 1983 survey from the same city, and prevalence was approximately half its previous level (p = 0.012). In Auckland, the prevalence of an isolated raised plasma alkaline phosphatase level (>150 U/L, normal range <120 U/L) was estimated in over 80,000 blood samples processed at a community laboratory. The prevalence of "biochemical Paget's disease," as assessed by this surrogate marker, was very similar to that observed in the radiographic survey in Auckland for subjects <80 years of age, but not for older subjects. We conclude that the prevalence of Paget's disease in New Zealand has declined over the past two decades, indicating that there are important environmental determinants in its development. Biochemical estimates of the prevalence of Paget's disease agree well with radiographic estimates, except in the elderly. The method used herein offers an alternative way of determining the prevalence of Paget's disease.