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Halogenated compounds and climate change: future emission levels and reduction costs
Jochen Harnisch1, David de Jager, John Gale
1ECOFYS energy & environment, D-50933 Cologne, Germany. j.harnisch@ecofys.de
Environmental Science and Pollution Research International
|January 8, 2003
Summary
Halogenated greenhouse gases contributed 3% to global emissions in 1996. Significant reductions in hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) are achievable at low costs.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Chemistry
Background:
- Halogenated greenhouse gases (HGGs) are potent contributors to climate change.
- Ozone-depleting substances (ODS) have an indirect cooling effect due to stratospheric ozone destruction.
- Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) are key regulated HGGs.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the climate change contribution of HGGs.
- To model emissions from 22 technological sectors across four major regions.
- To calculate the costs associated with deep emission reductions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a bottom-up emission model for comprehensive sector and regional analysis.
- Estimated emissions for 1996 and projected them for 2010 and 2020.
- Calculated the economic costs for significant emission mitigation.
Main Results:
- HGGs contributed 1100 +/- 800 MT CO2 eq. in 1996, representing 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
- Emissions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 are projected to increase, reaching 2% by 2010 and 3% by 2020.
- Identified global emission reduction potentials of 260 MT CO2 eq. (2010) and 640 MT CO2 eq. (2020) for HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 at under $50/ton.
Conclusions:
- HG emissions pose a significant, though uncertain, climate impact.
- Targeted mitigation of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 offers substantial cost-effective emission reduction opportunities.
- Policy interventions can leverage these reductions to meet climate goals.