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Related Experiment Videos

Satisficing in hypothesis generation.

Jennifer Garst1, Norbert L Kerr, Susan E Harris

  • 1Department of Communication, 2130 Skinner Building, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742-7635, USA. garst@umd.edu

The American Journal of Psychology
|January 9, 2003
PubMed
Summary
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Scientists may stop searching for new ideas once they have one that fits the data. This satisficing behavior in hypothesis generation reduces the exploration of simpler alternative hypotheses, even with incentives.

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Scientific Reasoning
  • Decision Making

Background:

  • Hypothesis generation is a critical step in scientific discovery.
  • Satisficing, a decision-making heuristic, may influence hypothesis generation.
  • Existing hypotheses that explain data might limit the search for alternatives.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether individuals act as satisficers in hypothesis generation.
  • To examine if having a data-consistent hypothesis reduces the generation of alternative hypotheses.
  • To explore the impact of a priori versus post hoc hypothesis provision on satisficing.

Main Methods:

  • Three experiments simulating scientific hypothesis development were conducted.
  • Participants were assigned to conditions with or without a pre-existing hypothesis consistent with the data.

Related Experiment Videos

  • The number and simplicity of alternative hypotheses generated were recorded.

    • Main Results:

    • Participants provided with a consistent hypothesis generated fewer simple alternative hypotheses.
    • Satisficing occurred irrespective of whether the hypothesis was a priori or post hoc.
    • High incentives for completeness did not eliminate satisficing behavior.

    Conclusions:

    • Individuals tend to satisfice during hypothesis generation, limiting the exploration of alternative explanations.
    • The practice of presenting post hoc hypotheses as a priori may stem from this satisficing tendency.
    • Understanding satisficing is crucial for improving scientific reasoning and hypothesis development.