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Assumed policy similarity and voter preference
Ryan M Quist1, William D Crano
1Department of Psychology, Claremont Graduate University, CA 91711, USA.
The Journal of Social Psychology
|May 9, 2003
Summary
Voters prefer candidates whose attitudes they perceive as similar to their own. This perceived attitude similarity significantly predicts voter preferences and choices, highlighting its importance in political science.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Social Psychology
Background:
- Voter preferences are influenced by various factors.
- Understanding the psychological underpinnings of voter choice is crucial for political analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine the impact of attitude similarity on voter preferences.
- To assess the predictive power of perceived similarity in voter choice models.
Main Methods:
- Secondary analysis of voter data from the 1972 U.S. presidential election.
- Creation of measures for assumed attitude similarity across six issues.
- Development and testing of a predictive model for voter actions.
Main Results:
- Greater perceived attitude similarity was strongly associated with increased voter attraction to candidates.
- Perceived similarity achieved high predictive accuracy (84%-88%) in two independent analyses.
- A developed model accurately predicted voter behavior in a hold-out sample.
Conclusions:
- Perceived attitude similarity is a critical determinant of voter preferences.
- Similarity-attraction research offers valuable insights for modeling policy choice behavior.
- The findings underscore the psychological dimensions influencing electoral outcomes.