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Published on: January 7, 2013
Analysis of mortality decline along with age and latent congenital defects
1National Radiation Protection Institute, Pileticka 57, Hradec Kralove 50003, Czech Republic. djosef@post.cz
Insights
Mortality from congenital anomalies decreases with age, explained by the theory of congenital individual risk. This theory accurately models mortality decline for most diseases, except malignant neoplasms.
Area of Science:
- Pediatrics
- Public Health
- Genetics
Background:
- Mortality from congenital anomalies shows an inverse relationship with age post-1 year.
- The theory of congenital individual risk posits that this decline is due to the attrition of more severely affected individuals.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the applicability of the theory of congenital individual risk to mortality decline across all diseases.
- To assess if the theory explains mortality trends within the first year of life and beyond.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of mortality data across five countries for all causes of death.
- Examination of age-dependent mortality patterns in relation to congenital anomalies.
Main Results:
- The theory of congenital individual risk effectively describes mortality decline for most diseases after birth, excluding malignant neoplasms.
- Mortality decline is attributed to the elimination of individuals with higher risks, with pre-birth selection being dominant.
- Congenital defects contribute to mortality from infectious diseases before age 10.
- Malignant neoplasms exhibit age-independent mortality between 1-20 years, lacking a distinct high-risk subpopulation.
Conclusions:
- The theory of congenital individual risk provides a robust framework for understanding age-related mortality decline in congenital anomalies.
- Significant deviations in mortality patterns, particularly for malignant neoplasms, warrant further investigation into underlying etiological factors.
Abstract:
Mortality from congenital anomalies is inversely proportional to age after the age of 1 year. The theory of congenital individual risk explains this mortality decline. The overall aim of this study is to test whether the theory describes mortality decline for all diseases within the first year of life and after the age of 1. Mortality decline along with age was analyzed in five countries and for all causes of death. The theory of congenital individual risk describes well the real mortality decline for all diseases except malignant neoplasms after the birth. Decline of mortality is due to the dying out of the more impaired individuals. Mortality decline with the first power of age results from the selection before the birth. It is dominant and the frequency of defects decreases proportionally to the value of individual risk of death. In the case of identically probable defects, the selection does not occur and mortality declines with the square of age. Congenital defects were also identified as a cause of death in the case of infectious diseases occurring before the age of 10. Mortality from malignant neoplasms is age-independent within the age period 1-20 years and, contrary to all other diseases, no small subpopulation with a significant individual risk was identified.
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