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Why Does Child Mortality Decrease With Age? Modeling the Age-Associated Decrease in Mortality Rate Using WHO Metadata

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Mortality rates significantly decrease with age, following an inverse proportion model from age one to ten. Congenital factors may influence mortality across various disease categories in early life.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Epidemiology
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Childhood mortality exhibits a rapid decline post-birth.
  • The causes of death evolve significantly with increasing age.
  • International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) chapters detail diverse disease categories.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze age-associated mortality rate decreases across all ICD-10 chapters.
  • To model the relationship between mortality rates and age in early life.
  • To investigate the influence of congenital factors on early-life mortality.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized World Health Organization mortality database.
  • Applied the Halley method for mortality rate calculation.
  • Analyzed mortality data across all countries and calendar years.

Main Results:

  • A single-parameter inverse proportion model accurately describes mortality from age 1 to 10 years (R² mean = 0.9942).
  • Mortality decrease was slower in the first year of life.
  • Exceptions included perinatal conditions (faster decrease) and neoplasms (age-independent rates).
  • Congenital malformations showed validity of the inverse proportion model from the first day of life.

Conclusions:

  • A theory of congenital individual risks of death is proposed.
  • Latent congenital impairments may contribute to unexplained deaths.
  • Findings highlight the critical role of congenital factors in early-life mortality patterns.