Progression age enhanced backward bifurcation in an epidemic model with super-infection

When a pathogen enters the body and reproduces, it can cause an infection, damage body cells, and cause illness symptoms that eventually lead to disease. Therefore, its prevention requires breaking the chain of infection.
The chain begins with pathogens: bacteria, viruses, fungi, prions, or parasites such as protozoa helminths. These can be present on the skin as transient or resident flora, or they can be acquired from the environment. Identifying and treating the type of infection and...

Stages of infection describe what happens to a susceptible host once a pathogen invades the human body. The stages of infection are incubation, prodromal, illness, stage of decline, and convalescence. The incubation stage is the period from exposure to a pathogen until symptoms start. The infected person is unaware of impending illness as the pathogens grow and multiply within the body. The duration may vary depending on the type of infection. The incubation period of measles averages ten to...

In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:

Exponential models are essential for describing rapid, multiplicative changes in natural systems, such as population growth. When a population doubles at regular intervals, the process can be modeled using a suitable base. For instance, a bacterial culture that doubles every three hours follows the model n(t)=n0⋅2t/3, where n(t) is the population at the time t.A more general model uses the natural base e, especially for continuous growth. This takes the form n(t)=n0⋅ert, where r is the relative...

Population dynamics can be described mathematically by considering the population size P(t) as a function of time. The rate of change of the population is then represented by the derivative of P(t). A simple assumption is that the rate of growth is proportional to the size of the population itself. This leads to an exponential growth model, where the population increases rapidly without bound. While this is a useful first approximation, it does not reflect realistic long-term...

Infectious diseases appear in populations through various transmission patterns, influenced by pathogen characteristics, population immunity, environmental conditions, and social behavior. Understanding these patterns is essential for effective public health surveillance and intervention. These categories—sporadic, outbreak, epidemic, pandemic, and endemic—help frame the nature and scope of disease events.Sporadic diseases occur irregularly and infrequently, without a predictable temporal or...