Projecting future drug expenditures--1995.

Area of Science:

• Health Economics
• Pharmaceutical Policy
• Drug Utilization Research

Background:

• Drug price inflation has decreased significantly due to managed care growth and fear of government price controls.
• Pharmaceutical industry analysts project modest price increases (2-5%) in the near future.
• Pharmacoeconomic research is gaining importance, necessitating critical evaluation by pharmacists.

Purpose of the Study:

• To discuss the use of various factors in projecting drug expenditures.
• To highlight the evolving landscape of healthcare delivery and its impact on drug spending.
• To emphasize the need for comprehensive analysis in drug budget forecasting.

Main Methods:

• Review of inflation data and market trends.
• Analysis of pharmacoeconomic research methodologies.
• Examination of new drug entity approvals and unlabeled drug uses.
• Assessment of practice-site-specific drug-use patterns and legislative impacts.
• Evaluation of shifts in healthcare delivery structures.

Main Results:

• Drug price inflation has declined from 6.9% (1991) to 2.2% (1994).
• Projected pharmaceutical price increases are estimated between 2-5% over the next 12-24 months.
• Healthcare delivery is shifting control of drug utilization from prescribers to large purchasers.

Conclusions:

• Accurate drug expenditure projections depend on a multi-faceted approach.
• Key factors include inflation, pharmacoeconomics, new drug pipelines, utilization patterns, legislation, and healthcare structure.
• Pharmacists must adapt to critically evaluate research and evolving market dynamics.