[Prognostic markers determining the start of dialysis]

It is widely known that renal disease progresses towards the terminal stage regardless of the cause. The aim of this study is to identify prognostic factors in the progression that determine the start of dialysis.

From january 1998 until december 1999, 76 patients diagnosed with renal failure were monitored, 52 of whom started dialysis treatments. Clinical and analytical variables were studied. An actuarial analysis was carried out following the methodology of Kaplan-Meier to determine the likelihood of the need for dialysis and the Cox proportional risk analysis was also used.

The patients enrolled in this study were between 20 and 78 years of age. 49 (64.5%) of the subjects were men and 27 (35.5%) were women. The most prevalent pathology was nephroangiosclerosis (26.3%), followed by diabetes (25.0%). During the monitoring program, 68.4% of the patients began dialysis treatments (table I). Systolic blood pressure, haemoglobin and the total proteins were univariately identified as prognostic variables. 89.47% and 71.58% of the patients with a systolic blood pressure reading of under 140 mmHg had not begun dialysis after 12 and 24 months respectively. 87.02% and 53.63% of the patients with a systolic blood pressure reading of over 140 mmHg had not begun dialysis after 12 and 24 months respectively (p = 0.025) (fig. 1). With a haemoglobin level higher than 10 gr/dl after 12 months 92.7% had not started dialysis, dropping to 72.33% after 24 months. With a haemoglobin level of under 10 g/dl 78.6% and 37.59% had not started dialysis after 12 and 24 months respectively (p = 0.0008) (fig. 2). Taking into account the mean values of different variables in the two year period prior to starting or not starting dialysis, it was found that haemoglobin significantly affected the risk of the need to start dialysis treatments [RR = 0.729; 95% CI = (0.554;0.959)], while systolic blood pressure was on the borderline of statistical significance (table IV).

Haemoglobin levels significantly affect the risk of the need to start dialysis treatments, while other variables were identified as possible prognostic factors.