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Temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai: a time-series study
Hai-Dong Kan1, Jian Jia, Bing-Heng Chen
1Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences : BES
|September 11, 2003
Summary
Temperature significantly impacts daily mortality in Shanghai. Both extreme heat and cold increase mortality risk, with an optimal temperature of 26.7°C for lowest risk.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Extreme temperatures pose a significant threat to public health.
- Understanding the relationship between temperature and mortality is crucial for public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between ambient temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai.
- To determine the optimal temperature associated with the lowest mortality risk.
Main Methods:
- A time-series approach was employed to analyze daily mortality data.
- Generalized additive Poisson regression models were used, incorporating non-parametric smooth functions.
- Models controlled for long-term trends, seasonality, day of the week, and other relevant variables.
Main Results:
- A V-shaped relationship was observed between total mortality and temperature.
- The optimal temperature for lowest mortality risk in Shanghai was identified as 26.7°C.
- Mortality increased by 0.73% for each degree Celsius above the optimum and decreased by 1.21% for each degree Celsius below the optimum.
Conclusions:
- Ambient temperature has a demonstrable effect on daily mortality in Shanghai.
- The time-series methodology is effective for studying temperature-mortality associations.
- Findings highlight the need for public health strategies to mitigate risks associated with temperature variations.