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[Measles in Chile: a dangerous upsurge]
1Departamento de Especialidades, Facultad de Medicina División Oriente, Universidad de Chile, Santiago.
Revista Medica De Chile
|May 1, 1992
Summary
Measles outbreaks in Chile occur cyclically, approximately every four years. Analysis predicts a new measles epidemic in mid-1992, potentially causing 40,000 cases.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Time Series Analysis
Context:
- Analysis of measles incidence in Chile spanning 28 years (1964-1991).
- Utilized time series and Fourier analysis for epidemiological pattern identification.
Purpose:
- To analyze the temporal patterns of measles incidence in Chile.
- To identify cyclical trends and predict future epidemic occurrences.
Summary:
- Monthly measles data from 1964 to 1991 revealed epidemic cycles of approximately 4 years.
- Fourier analysis confirmed these periodicities in measles transmission.
Impact:
- A new measles epidemic was predicted for mid-1992.
- The projected epidemic was estimated to cause approximately 40,000 cases, informing public health preparedness.