Scoring systems for predicting outcome in acute hemorrhagic necrotizing pancreatitis

Five scoring systems for predicting the severity and outcome of acute haemorrhagic necrotizing pancreatitis were retrospectively evaluated in 39 patients. The respective scores were Ranson, Imrie, APACHE II, multiple organ failure (MOF) and Sepsis Sensitivity Score (SSS). Twenty-two (56%) of the patients died. The survivors were significantly younger than the non-survivors, 68% of whom died within 3 weeks of admission to the intensive care unit. Stay in the unit was significantly longer in the former group. Sensitivity in prediction of death was best with APACHE II score greater than 9 (96%) and Ranson score greater than or equal to 3 (95%). Of the five scores, MOF greater than or equal to 4 gave the best equilibration between sensitivity (73%) and specificity (76%) and the strongest prediction of lethal outcome (80%). Although the independent factor age had low sensitivity (55%), it showed the highest values for specificity (88%) and prediction of death (86%). APACHE II scoring is concluded to be best for grading the severity of disease on admission to intensive care, while the MOF score is best for monitoring the degree of organ dysfunction and the intensity of supportive treatment.