[Projected supply and geographic distribution of physicians in Taiwan for the year 2000]

Using the data from the Physician Masterfile of the Department of Health, Executive Yuan, and reports from all of the medical colleges in Taiwan and the Ministry of Defense, this study projects the future supply of physicians as well as their geographic distribution. The components of the projection include a study of current supply, future increments and losses. Three sources of future increments are identified: new native medical graduates, foreign medical graduates and medical transfers from the military. Age-specific and year-of-graduation-specific active rates are used to estimate losses. The results of this study show: There will be 25,956 active physicians in Taiwan by the year 2000, or 118 physicians per 100,000 people; and the ratio of the highest to the lowest (Taipei city vs Yunlin county) in terms of the physician-population ratio will become worse from 4.5 in 1990 to 5.4 in 2000, ceteris paribus. Finally, this study discusses the projection process as well as the implications for the physician manpower policy in Taiwan.