Dogma disputed: potential endemic heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus in Australia

The concept of tertiary sexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has been central to government efforts to communicate notions of risk to heterosexuals in Australia. Data on heterosexually transmitted acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and HIV for Australia are reviewed with emphasis given to the probability of misclassification bias in the heterosexually acquired and 'other/undetermined' categories. Tertiary cases are almost certainly rare in Australia, with little evidence of any increase in their incidence since the first cases were recorded. Three factors (low probability of exposure, the infectivity of HIV and a comparatively low rate of sexual partner change) make it improbable that Australian heterosexuals with no risk factors will experience endemic HIV infection, with a caveat to this conclusion lying in the potential of Australian sex tourism to Southeast Asia for introducing HIV into the Australian heterosexual population. Four hegemonic factors which have acted to suppress any serious debate of the notion that HIV in Australia is unlikely to become endemic among heterosexuals are discussed: the political 'democratization' of risk inspired by concerns that gay men should not be further vilified as a victim group; the preventive imperative; a reluctance among health educators to question the very foundations of the message they are employed to deliver; and a reluctance to curtail 'Trojan horse' benefits to sexually transmissible disease prevention engendered by HIV education promoting safe sex messages.