[Extent of HIV infection and AIDS among drug addicts]

The purpose of this study was to review the extent of the HIV-epidemic and to make a prognosis about the number of AIDS-cases among drug addicts in the community of Copenhagen. In the public institutions for treatment of drug addicts, 191 HIV-positive individuals were known by January 1991. In the period August 1990-November 1991, 33 newly recognized cases of seropositivity were registered among drug addicts in the area of Copenhagen, but the time of infection was unknown. By October 1991, 53 cases of AIDS among drug addicts in Denmark were recorded. Based upon the knowledge of incubation period and mortality of AIDS, it was possible to set up a mathematical model, from which the number of expected AIDS-cases could be estimated. This model showed that the number of living drug addicts with AIDS in the community of Copenhagen probably not will exceed 20 during the coming years. It was also showed, that the number of drug addicts, who were infected with HIV in the primary spread of the virus in 1985-1986, was probably lower than 250. The actual prevalence and incidence of HIV-infection among drug addicts is uncertain, and there is a need for better surveillance of the epidemic.