[Prediction of postoperative complications in elective surgery]

Experience in prediction of surgical outcomes is summarized. Preliminary results of elective treatment of various surgical diseases are reviewed. Over the last 14 years some theoretical problems of prediction (surgical risk) were solved by the authors and decision making in critical situations is illustrated. Surgical outcomes in 500 patients operated on from 1972 to 2002 (30 years) were analyzed depending on a number of factors--age, severity of combined diseases and surgery traumaticity. It is noted that qualitative assessment of surgical risk is not enough for decision on the method of surgical treatment. It is necessary to create adequate and simple classification of criteria of postoperative prognosis in elective surgery able to realize quantitative assessment of surgical risk.