Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing
J Brad Adams1, Michael E Mann, Caspar M Ammann
1Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Clark Hall, Charlottesville, Virginia 22903, USA. jba7g@virginia.edu
Nature
|November 25, 2003
Summary
Explosive volcanic eruptions significantly increase the likelihood of El Niño climate events. This study provides strong evidence linking volcanic activity to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.
Area of Science:
- Paleoclimatology
- Climate Science
- Volcanology
Background:
- Past research suggests a link between volcanic eruptions and El Niño events, but this connection remains debated.
- Understanding climate forcings is crucial for predicting future climate variability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between explosive volcanic activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.
- To provide empirical support for the influence of volcanism on the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system.
Main Methods:
- Utilized two distinct paleoclimate reconstructions of El Niño activity.
- Employed two independent, proxy-based chronologies of explosive volcanic activity from 1649 to the present.
- Analyzed multi-year El Niño-like responses to volcanic forcing.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated a significant, multi-year El Niño-like response to explosive tropical volcanic forcing over centuries.
- Found that volcanic eruptions approximately double the probability of an El Niño event in the following winter.
- Established a robust empirical link between past explosive volcanism and ENSO behavior.
Conclusions:
- Explosive volcanism is a significant driver of ENSO events.
- The findings enhance our understanding of how external radiative forcing impacts the tropical Pacific.
- This research has implications for predicting climate responses to both natural and anthropogenic forcings.
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