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Predicting attendance for breast screening using routinely collected data.

Marjon van der Pol¹, John Cairns

¹Health Economics Research Unit, University of Aberdeen, Scotland. mvdpol@ucalgary.ca

Health Care Management Science

|December 23, 2003

Summary

Extending routine breast screening invitations to more age groups could increase attendance. A predictive model using women

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Area of Science:

Public Health
Epidemiology
Biostatistics

Background:

Breast cancer screening programs aim to detect cancer early.
Current age ranges for routine invitations may not capture all at-risk populations.
Predicting attendance is crucial for resource allocation and program effectiveness.

Purpose of the Study:

To predict attendance rates for breast screening if the eligible age range is extended.
To identify key factors influencing women's attendance at breast screening appointments.

Main Methods:

A regression model was developed to predict screening invitation response.
Independent variables included women's characteristics (screening history, area deprivation) and screening site factors (mobile van vs. static site, time of year).
Model performance was evaluated using goodness of fit measures and prediction accuracy on holdout and demonstration project samples.

Main Results:

The developed regression model successfully predicted breast screening attendance.
Hypothesized variables generally showed expected associations with attendance.
The model demonstrated satisfactory predictive accuracy for a holdout sample.

Conclusions:

The study provides a reliable model for predicting breast screening attendance.
Extending the age range for routine invitations is feasible with predictable attendance patterns.
Model performance may vary for populations not representative of standard screening practices.

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