Evaluation of environmental monitoring strategies

In environmental monitoring, it is important that the monitoring system should emit early warnings when undesired events occur. These events may be sudden or of a more subtle nature. In the design of such monitoring systems, a proper balance between cost and risk must be achieved. There are 2 classic types of risk connected with early warning systems, namely the risk of not detecting significant changes and the risk of false alarms. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method for comparing the performance of different monitoring systems, considering the classic types of risk and cost. The method is applied to the monitoring of the lichen cover as a test case. The expected utility has been used as a measure of performance. When estimating the probabilities of the events, spatial microsimulation and Monte-Carlo simulation techniques have been used. The monitoring programs studied are based on satellite images, aerial photos, field samples, and land-cover maps. The major conclusions of this study are that standardized quality measures are extremely useful for evaluating the usability of environmental monitoring methods. In addition, when estimating gains and costs, spatial microsimulation techniques are useful. To improve the method, however, macroconstraints should also be used for aligning the simulation model.