[Changes in mortality associated with traffic accidents in Andalusia from 1975 to 2001 and forecast for 2004]

To describe the evolution of mortality due to traffic accidents in Andalusia between 1975 and 2001 and to predict the mortality rates for 2004.

Ecological study with a population base.

Residents in Andalusia between 1975 and 2001.

Deaths due to traffic accidents in Andalusia between 1975 and 2001. Main measurements and results. Mortality rates adjusted for age in men and women and in three groups: under-35s, from 35 to 64, and over 64. The evolution of rates over time was studied through trend analysis. Short-term predictions of the mortality rates were made. The adjusted rates for men fell from 21.20 per 100000 inhabitants in 2001 to 20.21 in 2001. The rate for women fell from 4.87 to 4.60 during the same period. The evolution of mortality was similar for both sexes.

Traffic accident mortality evolved in an oscillating way, with an important fall in numbers starting in 1989. Mortality rates increased with age. The predictions formulated indicate that the stable trend starting in 1995 will remain the same in the coming years.