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A deterministic and stochastic simulation model for intra-herd paratuberculosis transmission.

Régis Pouillot1, Barbara Dufour, Benoît Durand

  • 1Agence Française de Sécurité Sanitaire des Aliments, DERNS, Maisons-Alfort Cedex, France. bdufour@vet-alfort.fr

Veterinary Research
|April 22, 2004
PubMed
Summary

Introducing paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) into French cattle herds causes significant economic losses. A simulation model evaluated the cost of purchasing a single infected heifer, highlighting the need for herd certification procedures.

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Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Epidemiology
  • Animal Health Economics
  • Disease Modeling

Background:

  • Paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) causes substantial economic losses in French cattle herds.
  • Herd-level certification procedures could mitigate these economic impacts.
  • Understanding intra-herd transmission dynamics is crucial for effective control strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a simulation model for assessing the economic consequences of introducing paratuberculosis into a French cattle herd.
  • To evaluate the economic impact of purchasing a single infected heifer.
  • To inform the potential development of a herd-level certification procedure.

Main Methods:

  • A deterministic and stochastic simulation model was developed to simulate intra-herd paratuberculosis transmission.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Epidemiological parameter values were sourced from a panel of French experts.
  • Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess model robustness.

    • Main Results:

    • The simulation model's results aligned with existing field observations regarding disease spread.
    • Economic consequences were evaluated based on the introduction of a single infected heifer.
    • Model validation was challenging due to limited data on true intra-herd paratuberculosis prevalence.

    Conclusions:

    • The developed model provides a valuable tool for cost-benefit analyses related to paratuberculosis control in French cattle herds.
    • The economic impact of introducing infected animals underscores the importance of preventative measures.
    • Further data collection on intra-herd prevalence is needed for rigorous model validation and improved risk assessment.