Dynamics of the U.S. 2022 Infant Formula Shortage and Recovery as Measured by In-stock Rates, Sales, and Household...

Since the infant formula shortage experienced in the U.S. in 2022, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and other U.S. government partners have been working to ensure and expand consumer access to infant formula products, while also ensuring that these products are safe and nutritionally adequate. The FDA, in tandem with its federal and state partners, continues to monitor the supply of these critical food products in the wake of the 2022 shortage for signals of potential disruptions or shortages. As part of these activities, we investigated the spatial and temporal dynamics of the U.S. 2022 infant formula shortage and recovery. To achieve this, we examined three data sources: (1) estimates of infant formula availability from retailers' online marketplaces, (2) sales of infant formula products, and (3) consumer survey responses regarding infant formula access. Infant formula availability dropped to its lowest value in May 2022 following a surge in infant formula sales. The recovery from the shortage was geographically varied, and this variation persisted for nearly one year. Sales of infant formula, by form and by brands, deviated from historical norms (2019-2021) for most of 2022. During a period of increasing in-stock rates, declining state-to-state variability, and normalizing infant formula sales, U.S. consumers reported less difficulty purchasing infant formula. Sales spikes in infant formula products typically preceded observable changes in estimated in-stock rates by approximately one week. Simultaneously monitoring all three of these data streams provided a more comprehensive description of the status and dynamics of the infant formula supply in the U.S. during the periods surrounding the 2022 shortage and recovery than only one of these data streams could provide. Ongoing monitoring can provide the FDA with a continuous assessment of the infant formula supply status from these multiple perspectives.