Determinants of fertility decline in China, 1981: analysis of intermediate variables

This study examines the proximate determinants of fertility in China by making use of the data collected by the One-per-Thousand Sample Fertility Survey of 1982. The results indicate that the most important inhibitor of potential fertility is deliberate control. Its contribution to fertility change has been far greater than all other proximate determinants. The marital structure of the population is also an important factor, while lactational infecundability and induced abortion are relatively unimportant. Comparative results by using data from the In-depth Fertility Survey conducted in Shanghai Municipality, Hebei and Shaanxi Provinces in April 1985 agree well in the ranking of the four intermediate factors. The findings point to successful family planning program and government population policies, which propelled the fertility transition to a substantial degree. Further research needs and policy implications of the results of the study are discussed.