Jove
Visualize
Contact Us
JoVE
x logofacebook logolinkedin logoyoutube logo
ABOUT JoVE
OverviewLeadershipBlogJoVE Help Center
AUTHORS
Publishing ProcessEditorial BoardScope & PoliciesPeer ReviewFAQSubmit
LIBRARIANS
TestimonialsSubscriptionsAccessResourcesLibrary Advisory BoardFAQ
RESEARCH
JoVE JournalMethods CollectionsJoVE Encyclopedia of ExperimentsArchive
EDUCATION
JoVE CoreJoVE BusinessJoVE Science EducationJoVE Lab ManualFaculty Resource CenterFaculty Site
Terms & Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Policies

Related Experiment Videos

Thinking about low-probability events. An Exemplar-Cuing theory.

Jonathan J Koehler1, Laura Macchi

  • 1McCombs School of Business and School of Law, The University of Texas at Austin, TX 78712-1175, USA. koehler@mail.utexas.edu

Psychological Science
|July 24, 2004
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Related Concept Videos

You might also read

Related Articles

Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

Sort by
Same author

Does Physical Interaction with Insight Problems Really Affect the Solution Rate?

Journal of Intelligence·2026
Same author

A response to EA-4/23 INF:2025 "The Assessment and Accreditation of Opinions and Interpretations using ISO/IEC 17025:2017".

Forensic science international·2025
Same author

Dissociable Effects of Verbalization on Solving Insight and Non-Insight Problems.

Journal of Intelligence·2025
Same author

The scientific reinvention of forensic science.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·2023
Same author

Editorial: Psychology and mathematics education.

Frontiers in psychology·2023
Same author

Behavioral Changes After the COVID-19 Lockdown in Italy.

Frontiers in psychology·2021
Same journal

Boosting Media Literacy Using Lateral Reading and Online Search Interventions.

Psychological science·2026
Same journal

A Field Experiment Testing Whether Accountability Reduces Racial Gaps in Performance Evaluations.

Psychological science·2026
Same journal

Does Testosterone Affect Cognitive Reflection? Evidence From a Double-Blind, Randomized Controlled Study of 1,000 Participants.

Psychological science·2026
Same journal

Does Overconfidence Really Confer Adaptive Benefits to Children's Learning?

Psychological science·2026
Same journal

How Does the Mind Grow? Cross-Cultural Intuitive Theories of Mental Development.

Psychological science·2026
Same journal

Not All Practice Is Created Equal: Longitudinal Evidence From Over 40,000 Chess Players.

Psychological science·2026
See all related articles

People weigh unlikely events more when they can easily imagine them happening. This impacts legal judgments, like DNA evidence, showing how event descriptions influence perceived probability.

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Legal Psychology
  • Decision Science

Background:

  • The perceived likelihood of unlikely events is influenced by descriptive framing.
  • Cognitive biases can affect judgment, particularly in legal contexts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how the ease of imagining unlikely events affects their perceived weight.
  • To examine the impact of event description on mock juror decision-making regarding DNA evidence.

Main Methods:

  • Two experiments were conducted using mock jurors presented with written murder scenarios.
  • The difficulty of imagining alternative explanations for DNA matches was manipulated by varying statistical descriptions.
  • Juror responses to the defendant's claim of coincidence were measured.

Related Experiment Videos

Main Results:

  • Mock jurors assigned more weight to the defendant's coincidence claim when it was easier to imagine other individuals with matching DNA.
  • The ease of generating examples of coincidental matches significantly influenced jurors' perceptions.
  • Normatively irrelevant variations in statistical descriptions affected juror judgments.

Conclusions:

  • The ability to easily imagine unlikely events increases their perceived probability and influence on decisions.
  • Descriptive framing of statistical evidence, even irrelevant details, can sway legal judgments.
  • Understanding these cognitive biases is crucial for ensuring fair legal proceedings.