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Related Experiment Videos

A Bayesian approach to the argument from ignorance.

Mike Oaksford1, Ulrike Hahn

  • 1School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Wales, UK. oaksford@cardiff.ac.uk

Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology = Revue Canadienne De Psychologie Experimentale
|August 3, 2004
PubMed
Summary

The argument from ignorance fallacy can be a valid, albeit weak, form of inductive reasoning. This study explores its probabilistic structure and empirical strength factors.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Science
  • Philosophy of Logic
  • Psychology of Reasoning

Background:

  • The argumentum ad ignorantiam, or argument from ignorance, is a classic informal fallacy.
  • Traditional views deem it logically unsound, irrespective of its premises.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To re-examine the argumentum ad ignorantiam from a probabilistic perspective.
  • To investigate whether certain forms of argument from ignorance represent legitimate inductive reasoning.
  • To explore empirical factors influencing the strength of such arguments.

Main Methods:

  • Probabilistic analysis of argument structures.
  • Comparison with unproblematic inductive reasoning examples.
  • Experimental investigation of argument strength variables.

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Main Results:

  • Some versions of the argument from ignorance share structures with valid inductive arguments.
  • Probabilistically, these arguments can be considered legitimate forms of reasoning.
  • Textbook examples are often weak inductive arguments, not necessarily unsound.
  • Experimental data identified key variables affecting argument strength.

Conclusions:

  • The argument from ignorance is not universally fallacious but can be a weak inductive argument.
  • A probabilistic framework offers a more nuanced understanding of its validity.
  • Further research can develop an empirical theory of argument strength.