Mycotoxin risk assessment for the purpose of setting international regulatory standards

The 2003 Council for Agricultural Science and Technology Mycotoxin report states that one 21st century goal is the development of uniform regulations worldwide for foodborne mycotoxin contamination. This study informs that endeavor by a risk assessment and economic analysis of two important mycotoxins: fumonisins and aflatoxins. The goals are to identify the nations that would be most heavily impacted by tighter mycotoxin regulations, examine costs and benefits as a function of regulatory stringency, and address risk-risk tradeoffs between health benefits and economic losses from compliance with those regulations. Among industrial nations, the United States would experience the heaviest economic losses from more precautionary mycotoxin standards. Environmental conditions in the developing world, however, are more conducive to mycotoxin accumulation in crops. Contrary to concerns expressed among policymakers, the less developed countries that would likely experience the greatest loss from tighter mycotoxin standards are not sub-Saharan African nations, but China and Argentina. If a fumonisin standard of 0.5 mg/kg were adopted worldwide, total export losses from fumonisins in corn may exceed 300 million dollars annually: 3-fold higher than if the less stringent U.S. standard of 2 mg/kg were adopted. Likewise, export losses from aflatoxins in peanuts may exceed 450 million dollars under the current EU regulatory standard of 4 microg/kg: almost 5-fold higher than if the U.S. standard of 20 microg/kg were adopted. Stricter standards are unlikely to improve health significantly. In developing nations such as China where hepatitis B and C are prevalent, tighter aflatoxin standards may increase health risks until improved control methods for aflatoxins are found, as high-quality crops may be exported instead of being consumed domestically.