Health and environmental co-benefits of reducing ultra-processed food consumption in Argentina: a modelling study

Reducing ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption is widely proposed to improve population health, but whether it also generates environmental co-benefits depends on the foods that replace UPFs in the diet. We developed a comparative risk assessment macrosimulation using nationally representative dietary data from Argentina to estimate the mortality and economic burden attributable to UPF consumption and to evaluate policy-relevant reduction scenarios. The scenarios reduced UPF exposure without replacement or replaced the displaced dietary energy or food mass using alternative baskets, including one aligned with the National Dietary Guidelines. We also decomposed the environmental effects of the guideline-concordant basket by food group. In 2019, UPF consumption was associated with 9823 premature deaths, 349 686 years of life lost, and 0.84 billion international dollars in indirect costs. Under the most ambitious reduction target, alternative replacement baskets averted the same 8747 deaths but produced markedly different environmental outcomes, ranging from improvements in all four environmental indicators to increases in all four. The guideline-concordant basket increased water use and eutrophication while producing little change in greenhouse gas emissions and land use. The food-group decomposition showed that these aggregate outcomes reflected opposing contributions from a small number of foods. Reducing UPF consumption can generate substantial health and economic benefits, but environmental co-benefits are not automatic and depend on the dietary patterns that replace UPFs.