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Establishment risks for invasive species.

Steven M Bartell1, Shyam K Nair

  • 1The Cadmus Group, Inc., 339 Whitecrest Dr., Maryville, TN 37801, USA. sbartell@cadmusgroup.com

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|September 11, 2004
PubMed
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This study introduces a quantitative method to predict invasive pest establishment probability. It uses ecological data and a population model to assess risks, aiding in pest management strategies.

Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Population Dynamics
  • Invasive Species Management

Background:

  • Invasive pest species pose significant ecological and economic threats.
  • Predicting the establishment of introduced pests is crucial for effective risk management.
  • Current methods often lack a quantitative framework for assessing establishment probability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To present a quantitative methodology for evaluating the probability of invasive pest species establishing persistent populations.
  • To integrate ecological data and population modeling for risk assessment.
  • To provide a framework for evaluating risk reduction strategies against pest invasions.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a model construct from theoretical population ecology.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Integrated pest biology, ecology, host interactions, and environmental suitability data.
  • Applied the methodology to the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) as a case study.
  • Quantified and propagated uncertainties through the population model.

    • Main Results:

    • Developed a quantitative methodology to estimate pest establishment probability.
    • Demonstrated the application of the methodology using the Asian longhorned beetle.
    • Identified and quantified uncertainties in model parameters affecting establishment risk.
    • Presented a risk reduction framework integrating technology and ecological factors.

    Conclusions:

    • The proposed methodology offers a robust quantitative approach to assess invasive pest establishment risk.
    • The framework aids in understanding the impact of reduced pest entry on subsequent establishment.
    • Recommendations are provided to enhance the methodology's utility in pest risk management.