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The Milwaukee Cryptosporidium outbreak: assessment of incubation time and daily attack rate

Mukul Gupta1, Charles N Haas

  • 1Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.

Journal of Water and Health
|September 25, 2004
PubMed

Insights

Analyzing the 1993 Milwaukee cryptosporidiosis outbreak, a dynamic model revealed insights into the epidemic curve. This approach aids understanding waterborne disease dynamics, though further data like serology is recommended for precise assessment.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The 1993 Milwaukee outbreak of cryptosporidiosis was a significant public health event.
  • Understanding the transmission dynamics of waterborne diseases is crucial for effective control.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the epidemic curve of the 1993 Milwaukee cryptosporidiosis outbreak.
  • To apply a dynamic model incorporating time-variant force of infection and incubation time distributions.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a dynamic model, a coupled integro-differential equation system.
  • Tested various functional forms for force of infection and incubation time distributions.
  • Analyzed the time course of reported illnesses (epidemic curve).

Main Results:

  • The dynamic models provided a good fit to the outbreak data.
  • Different functional forms yielded varying incubation time and force of infection curves.
  • A consistent baseline illness rate was observed across models.

Conclusions:

  • Dynamic modeling offers valuable insights into waterborne epidemic dynamics.
  • Model results showed reasonable agreement regarding baseline illness rates.
  • Supplementing with additional data, such as serology, is recommended for precise disease dynamics assessment.

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