China's missing children: the 2000 census underreporting surprise

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Population Studies
• Sociology

Background:

• Accurate population data is crucial for effective policy-making and resource allocation.
• China's census data is vital for understanding its vast population dynamics.
• Previous censuses in China have faced underreporting challenges, particularly for children.

Purpose of the Study:

• To compare the age and sex structure of China's 2000 population census with a projection from the 1990 census.
• To quantify the extent of child underreporting in the 2000 census.
• To investigate the reasons behind the increased child underreporting rates.

Main Methods:

• Comparative analysis of census data and demographic projections.
• Intercensal analysis to identify enumeration shortfalls.
• Examination of official estimates of demographic change.

Main Results:

• The 2000 census revealed a shortfall of over 25% for children under 5 and 12.5% for children aged 5-9.
• An estimated 37 million children were missing from the 2000 census enumeration.
• Child underreporting rates in 2000 were approximately triple those of previous censuses, with minor sex differences.

Conclusions:

• The 2000 Chinese census significantly underreported young children, indicating a substantial data accuracy issue.
• Increased child underreporting is strongly associated with policy changes in the early 1990s enforcing birth quotas.
• The findings highlight the need for improved census methodologies and policy impact assessments in population studies.