Extinction risk of a meta-population: aggregation approach

Area of Science:

• Mathematical Ecology
• Population Dynamics
• Conservation Biology

Background:

• Complex ecological models are challenging for parameter estimation with limited data.
• Simplified models offer practical alternatives for analyzing population dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the applicability of a single-population model formula for predicting extinction time in structured metapopulations.
• To investigate the influence of migration and environmental correlation on extinction time.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a canonical model formula for unstructured populations.
• Generated Monte Carlo time series for structured metapopulation models with logistic growth and stochasticities.
• Estimated effective parameters by fitting time series data to the canonical model.

Main Results:

• The single-population formula accurately predicted mean extinction time for structured metapopulations.
• Accuracy was maintained across various migration rates and environmental correlations.
• Effective parameter estimation allowed for reliable extinction risk assessment.

Conclusions:

• A simplified, single-population model formula can effectively estimate extinction risk for structured metapopulations.
• This approach is particularly valuable when data for parameter estimation is limited.
• The findings support the use of simplified models in conservation biology and ecological risk assessment.