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Updated: Aug 20, 2026

Establishment and Evaluation of a Risk Prediction Model for Pathological Escalation of Gastric Low-Grade Intraepithelial Neoplasia
Published on: February 16, 2024
[Study of predictive factors of severe digestive lesions due to caustics ingestion]
Oscar Núñez1, Cecilia González-Asanza, Gema de la Cruz
1Servicio de Aparato Digestivo, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain. onumar@inicia.es
Objective:
Our purpose was to analyze the predictive factors of severe upper gastrointestinal injury by caustic substances in adult patients.
Patients And Method:
Retrospective study between February 1995 and February 2001 of adult patients who underwent an urgent upper endoscopy due to caustic ingestion. Endoscopic caustic ingestion criteria by Zargar et al were used to determine the degree of injury. We performed a univariate study of factors associated with sever digestive injury and, lately, a logistic regression analysis of predictive factors. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of these factors were calculated.
Results:
One hundred and fifty nine patients were included in the study, whose mean age was 48.9 (20.1) years and 49.7% were men. The more frequent caustic ingested was lye (47.8%). A severe caustic injury was found in urgent upper endoscopy in 18.4% of patients, which was located in esophagus in 14.6%, stomach in 8.2% and duodenum in 0.6% of cases. Male sex, voluntary ingestion, oropharingeal lesions, significant clinical symptoms and dishwasher and detergents ingestion were associated with severe upper gastrointestinal tract (GIT) injury. Voluntary ingestion, oropharingeal lesions and significant clinical symptoms at admission were independent predictive factors of severe GIT injury. The existence of one of these factors had an 89.7% of sensitivity while two or more displayed a specificity of 91%.
Conclusions:
Clinical and exploratory data may determine, before upper endoscopic procedure, the probability of severe GIT injury by caustic ingestion. Therefore, these data could play a significant role in the diagnostic, prognostic and therapeutic management of caustic ingestion.
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