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Risk management for Leontief-based interdependent systems.

Pu Jiang1, Yacov Y Haimes

  • 1Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903, USA. tongdan@yahoo.com

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|November 26, 2004
PubMed
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Effective risk management can significantly reduce cascading effects and derivative losses from disasters. By strategically distributing initial inoperability, total economic loss is minimized, optimizing resource allocation for critical infrastructures.

Area of Science:

  • Disaster Management
  • Economic Resilience
  • Systems Engineering

Background:

  • Critical infrastructures and economic units face significant productivity losses from catastrophic events like terrorist attacks, wars, or natural disasters.
  • Interdependencies between systems can cause initial losses to propagate, leading to much greater derivative losses, a phenomenon known as the cascading effect.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To demonstrate that effective risk management can significantly reduce cascading effects and derivative losses.
  • To develop a framework for optimal distribution of inoperability to minimize total system loss.
  • To apply risk management strategies to situations requiring objective prioritization.

Main Methods:

  • A linear programming technique was employed to determine the optimal distribution strategy for inoperability.

Related Experiment Videos

  • A steady-state approach was used, applicable to catastrophic events with long recovery times.
  • A case study involving 12 economic sectors was conducted to illustrate the theoretical framework.

    • Main Results:

    • Effective risk management, achieved by distributing inoperability, significantly reduces cascading effects and derivative losses.
    • The optimal distribution strategy, found via linear programming, minimizes total system loss.
    • Minimizing infrastructure risk (inoperability) with available resources yields the highest payoff, while neglecting it can lead to the greatest total loss.

    Conclusions:

    • Strategic risk management is crucial for mitigating cascading failures in interconnected economic systems.
    • Optimal distribution of initial inoperability is key to minimizing overall economic and productivity losses.
    • Prioritizing infrastructure resilience through risk management maximizes economic payoff and prevents catastrophic total loss.