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Variables associated with successful vaginal birth after one cesarean section: a proposed vaginal birth after
Ron Gonen1, Ada Tamir, Shimon Degani
1Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Bnai Zion Medical Center, Haifa, Israel.
The objective of this study was to define the variables associated with vaginal birth after cesarean section (VBAC) and to develop a scoring system for the prediction of successful VBAC. We searched our computerized database for parturients with a history of one low-transverse cesarean section (CS) who were delivered during the year 2000. Variables were categorized according to the time period in which they were obtained: (1) first prenatal visit, (2) at the onset of labor, and (3) during labor. Univariate and multiple stepwise logistic regression models were fitted to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Of the 475 parturients with a history of one previous CS, 136 underwent elective CS and 339 underwent a trial of VBAC, of whom 82% were successful. Of the variables that can be obtained at the onset of labor, five were significantly associated with successful VBAC: abnormal presentation as the indication for the primary CS (OR, 7.4; 95% CI 2.8 to 19.2), a previous VBAC (OR, 7.2; 95% CI, 2.1 to 24.8), cervical dilation (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.3 to 4.9), gestational age < or = 41 weeks (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.1 to 7.1), and lower gestational age at the primary CS (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.4). In the proposed VBAC score, each of the four most significant variables was assigned a score ranging between 0 and 3 based on the probability for VBAC. A score < or = 2 was associated with a success rate of 42%, a score between 3 and 6 was associated with a rate of 81%, and a score between 7 and 10 was associated with a 98% successful VBAC rate (p < 0001). The proposed VBAC score may help obstetricians when counseling their patients regarding the individual likelihood of a successful VBAC.
The objective of this study was to define the variables associated with vaginal birth after cesarean section (VBAC) and to develop a scoring system for the prediction of successful VBAC. We searched our computerized database for parturients with a history of one low-transverse cesarean section (CS) who were delivered during the year 2000. Variables were categorized according to the time period in which they were obtained: (1) first prenatal visit, (2) at the onset of labor, and (3) during labor. Univariate and multiple stepwise logistic regression models were fitted to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Of the 475 parturients with a history of one previous CS, 136 underwent elective CS and 339 underwent a trial of VBAC, of whom 82% were successful. Of the variables that can be obtained at the onset of labor, five were significantly associated with successful VBAC: abnormal presentation as the indication for the primary CS (OR, 7.4; 95% CI 2.8 to 19.2), a previous VBAC (OR, 7.2; 95% CI, 2.1 to 24.8), cervical dilation (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.3 to 4.9), gestational age < or = 41 weeks (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.1 to 7.1), and lower gestational age at the primary CS (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.4). In the proposed VBAC score, each of the four most significant variables was assigned a score ranging between 0 and 3 based on the probability for VBAC. A score < or = 2 was associated with a success rate of 42%, a score between 3 and 6 was associated with a rate of 81%, and a score between 7 and 10 was associated with a 98% successful VBAC rate (p < 0001). The proposed VBAC score may help obstetricians when counseling their patients regarding the individual likelihood of a successful VBAC.
