Modelling the interactions between phenology and insecticide resistance genes in the codling moth Cydia pomonella

In the codling moth Cydia pomonella (L), insecticide resistance genes have been associated with pleiotropic effects affecting phenology. In this paper, we investigated whether an increase in the frequency of insecticide resistance in field populations of C pomonella was likely to entail significant divergences in the temporal occurrence of both susceptible and insecticide-resistant individuals. For this purpose, we built a phenological model that provided suitable predictions of the distinct and diverging seasonal evolutions of populations of a susceptible and two insecticide-resistant (at two and three loci) homozygous genotypes of C pomonella. Model simulations for each genotype were further compared with pheromone trap catches recorded in a field insecticide-treated population over an 8-year period (from 1992 to 2000), which reflected the progressive annual increase in the frequency of resistance in southeastern France. We found a significant delay in field adult emergence relative to those predicted by the homozygous susceptible model, and the magnitude of such a delay was positively correlated with increasing frequencies of insecticide resistance in the sampled field population of C pomonella. Adult emergence predicted in the theoretical population that was homozygous for resistance at two loci converged with those recorded in the field during the investigated 8-year period. This suggested that the pleiotropic effects of resistance were likely to result in a significant phenological segregation of insecticide-resistant alleles in the field. The results of this study emphasized the potential for pest populations exposed to chemical selection to evolve qualitatively with respect to phenology. This may raise critical questions regarding the use of phenological modelling as a forecasting tool for appropriate resistance management strategies that would take into account the diverging seasonal evolutions of both insecticide resistance and susceptibility.