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Reducing voluntary, avoidable turnover through selection.

Murray R Barrick1, Ryan D Zimmerman1

  • 1Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa.

The Journal of Applied Psychology
|January 12, 2005
PubMed
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Predicting employee turnover before hiring is possible using biodata and retention scales. These methods accurately forecast voluntary, avoidable turnover with minimal disparate impact across demographic groups.

Area of Science:

  • Organizational Psychology
  • Human Resource Management
  • Predictive Analytics

Background:

  • Employee turnover is a significant cost to organizations.
  • Predicting turnover early in the hiring process can mitigate these costs.
  • Existing methods for predicting turnover often lack accuracy or introduce bias.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the predictive validity of biodata, clear-purpose attitudes/intentions, and disguised-purpose retention scales for voluntary turnover.
  • To determine if these variables offer incremental validity beyond each other.
  • To assess the disparate impact of these predictors on different demographic subgroups (race, sex, age).

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of applicant data from two organizations (N = 445).

Related Experiment Videos

  • Utilized biodata, clear-purpose retention scales, and disguised-purpose retention scales as predictors.
  • Employed correlation and regression analyses to assess predictive efficacy and incremental validity.
  • Calculated subgroup differences (disparate impact) using Cohen's d.

    • Main Results:

    • Biodata, clear-purpose attitudes/intentions, and disguised-purpose retention scales significantly predicted voluntary, avoidable turnover (rs = -.16 to -.22).
    • Biodata and disguised-purpose retention scales provided incremental validity.
    • Clear-purpose retention scales did not add significant predictive value beyond biodata and disguised-purpose scales.
    • Disparate impact across race, sex, and age was consistently small (average d = 0.12).

    Conclusions:

    • Pre-hire assessments, specifically biodata and disguised-purpose retention scales, can effectively predict voluntary employee turnover.
    • These predictive tools demonstrate incremental validity, enhancing prediction accuracy.
    • The studied predictors show minimal adverse impact on protected demographic groups, suggesting fairness in application.