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Forecasting one's future based on fleeting subjective experiences.

Jennifer S Lerner1, Roxana M Gonzalez

  • 1Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA. jlerner@andrew.cmu.edu

Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin
|March 4, 2005
PubMed
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Forecasting future events relies on emotions and ease of thought, not just facts. Accountability for forecasts can worsen these subjective influences, highlighting the complexity of human judgment.

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Social Psychology
  • Decision Science

Background:

  • Forecasting judgments often involve balancing explicit facts with subjective experiences.
  • Understanding the interplay of emotions, cognitive fluency, and accountability in future predictions is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the influence of incidental emotions and ease of thought generation on forecasting accuracy.
  • To examine the moderating role of accountability in mitigating the impact of subjective experiences on forecasts.

Main Methods:

  • Two empirical studies were conducted to assess forecasting judgments.
  • Participants' incidental emotions, subjective ease of thought generation, and accountability were manipulated or measured.
  • Forecasting accuracy and subjective experiences were analyzed using statistical modeling, including interaction effects.

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Main Results:

  • Forecasting judgments are significantly influenced by incidental emotions and the subjective ease of generating thoughts.
  • Accountability for forecast accuracy does not consistently remedy the effects of subjective experiences.
  • A three-way interaction was observed between incidental emotions, ease of thought generation, and accountability, revealing complex interplay.

Conclusions:

  • Fleeting subjective experiences, such as emotions and cognitive fluency, play a substantial role in future forecasting.
  • Accountability can have unintended consequences, sometimes amplifying the impact of subjective factors.
  • Findings have implications for understanding affect, social cognition, and risk perception in decision-making.