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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
How much more global warming and sea level rise?
Gerald A Meehl1, Warren M Washington, William D Collins
1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Post Office Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA. meehl@ncar.ucar.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|March 19, 2005
Summary
Even with stabilized greenhouse gas levels, Earth faces significant future warming and sea level rise. Climate models indicate a committed half-degree Celsius rise and 320% thermal expansion sea level rise by 2100.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- Greenhouse gas concentrations have been rising, leading to global warming.
- Past climate changes have already been observed globally.
- Future climate trajectories depend on stabilization scenarios.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project future climate changes under a hypothetical greenhouse gas stabilization scenario.
- To quantify committed global warming and sea level rise.
- To assess the impact of climate model projections on regional climate patterns.
Main Methods:
- Utilized two global coupled climate models.
- Simulated climate conditions with stabilized greenhouse gas concentrations from the year 2000.
- Analyzed projected changes in global temperature and sea level due to thermal expansion.
Main Results:
- A committed global warming of approximately 0.5°C by the end of the 21st century.
- An additional sea level rise of 320% attributed to thermal expansion.
- Projected weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation does not cause net cooling in Europe.
Conclusions:
- Past emissions have committed the planet to significant future climate change, irrespective of immediate stabilization.
- Sea level rise and global warming trends will continue beyond 21st century stabilization.
- Regional climate impacts, such as North Atlantic circulation changes, require careful consideration.
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