[Predictive factors for bone loss]

A clear understanding of the pattern and determinants of bone loss in later life is required to the design of preventive strategies against osteoporosis. However, there have been few longitudinal studies of changes in bone mineral density (BMD) in the general population. The objective of this review was to characterise the determinants of bone loss and assess whether they could predict the bone loss in the future. Aging, female sex, perimenopausal period were significantly associated with the rate of bone loss. Anthropometric measurements at baseline were also related significantly to change in bone density. Baseline values and the change of weight, height and BMI were statistically significant predictors for bone loss. By contrast, longitudinal cohort study showed the difference of residence was no longer associated with the bone loss. Furthermore, what the rate of bone change was different from birth cohort was introduced. Thus, the comparison of the data obtained in same strata at the present and 10 years ago, there were significant generation gaps in men in their 60s and in women in their 50s. Concerning bone metabolic markers, some markers were significantly related to the change of lumbar BMD, however, the coefficient for determination for these markers in the prediction of bone loss was only less than 10%. It therefore was concluded that bone metabolic markers might not be sufficiently helpful to predict the change of BMD in individuals. Other factors including new biochemical markers and lifestyle factors should be considered in a clinical diagnosis.