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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Aggregate, disaggregate, and hybrid analyses of ecological risk perceptions
Henry H Willis1, Michael L DeKay, Baruch Fischhoff
1RAND Corporation, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA. hwillis@rand.org
Summary
This study identifies key factors influencing public perception of ecological hazards, such as ecological impacts and controllability. These factors help predict how people judge overall riskiness and acceptability of environmental risks.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Psychology
- Risk Perception
- Ecological Health
Background:
- Public perception of health and safety risks is well-researched, but understanding of ecological hazard perception is limited.
- Existing literature spans comparative risk assessment, environmental psychology, and risk perception studies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify and analyze the attributes laypeople use to perceive ecological hazards.
- To determine how these perceived attributes influence judgments of riskiness, acceptability, and regulatory strictness.
- To provide an empirical foundation for selecting hazard attributes in comparative risk assessment.
Main Methods:
- Study 1: 125 laypeople rated 83 hazards on 39 attributes. Factor analysis identified six key factors.
- Study 2: 30 laypeople rated 34 hazards on 17 attributes. Aggregate and individual analyses were conducted.
- Psychometric methods were employed to analyze hazard perception data.
Main Results:
- Six factors emerged: ecological impacts, human impacts, human benefits, aesthetic impacts, scientific understanding, and controllability.
- These factors significantly predicted judgments of overall riskiness, ecological riskiness, acceptability, and regulatory strictness.
- Aggregate-level analyses provided a more robust prediction of risk judgments compared to individual-level analyses.
Conclusions:
- Perceptions of ecological hazards are structured by identifiable attributes.
- Distinguishing between aggregate and individual analysis levels is crucial for understanding risk perception.
- Findings support the use of psychometric data for comparative risk assessment of ecological hazards.
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